The world will pay a heavy price

Henry Kissinger once said - To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.

Joe Biden has just proved it.Americans can never be trusted.The disastrous withdrawal of US Forces apparently some leaving before their citizen and diplomats not only shows America screwed up but also made a fool of themselves and in the bargain lost their credibility in front of allies.

This will haunt America for posterity.America's withdrawal has given moral booster to radical organisation all over world.

Two days before there were reports of Jaish-E-Mohammed cadres meeting Taliban and seeking help for their struggle in Kashmir Valley.Lets not forget one of the mastermind of Pulwama attack on CRPF Convoy was an Afghan war veteran.

With Taliban in control of Afghanistan ,Pakistan gets opportunity to temporarily shift all its terror training camps to Afghanistan and show the world that they have removed all terror training camps so that they can come out of Financial Action Task Force(FATF) grey list.

Looking at the mess America is leaving behind,today Mikhail Gorbachev might be having last laugh.Soviets at least did not beg to Taliban to spare its embassy something which Americans did by sending CIA director William Burns to Kabul to meet Abdul Baradar.

It's often said you reap what you sow and Karma is a Bitch.

Today America might be realizing this.They have been defeated and humbled by the very same organisation which they funded,armed and supported in 80's when Soviets were in Afghanistan.

We can forget about our hopes of creating an alliance on the lines of NATO with ASEAN,Japan,Australia,Taiwan as a counterbalance to China as this alliance will not have requisite military weight without US and with Biden at helm of affairs,America can never be trusted.

Biden belongs to the erstwhile cold war era where Americans considered Pakistan as their ally and India as a threat for peace in sub-continent.Lets not forget America had dispatched its aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower part of its seventh fleet to intimidate India in 1971 war with Pakistan.

US forces has reportedly left behind 65 aircraft, 109 choppers, 8000 trucks, 160000 NVDs, 360000 rifles, 130000 pistols, 64000 machine guns, 169 APCs, 155 MPVs, 42000 SUVs.This is an insult to the sacrifice of over 2000 American soldiers who laid down their life.What kind of a military evacuates before their citizens are evacuated.And what kind of military arms the very same organisation it has been fighting for 20 years?

America will come to regret this hasty withdrawal.And in coming years will find itself getting deployed in Afghanistan again.

The refusal of Islamic Countries on accepting Afghan refugees is not only inhuman but it also has exposed their hypocrisy.

The world will pay a heavy price and will regret its decision of not supporting America when it alone was fighting for 20 long years in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan will become again safe heaven for terror organisations.And the heaviest price will be paid by us as Pakistan will get cover of plausible deniability and will continue its strategy of bleeding India by thousand cuts with renewed vigour and get out of FATF grey list at the same time.It had used Afghanistan territory in the past,Pakistan will use it again against us.

The world has no rights to blame United States for leaving Afghanistan

 Afghanistan often labelled as graveyard of empires has lived up to its reputation as United States(U.S.A) has become second superpower after erstwhile Union Of Soviet Socialist Republic (U.S.S.R) to leave Afghanistan without achieving their purpose.

Needless to say Afghanistan has become second Vietnam for Americans and the fact that US Forces slipped out of Afghanistan's Bagram Air-base quietly in night itself shows that its the Taliban which is nearing to complete control over Afghanistan and it might be probably months before Kabul falls.

Two weeks ago India had evacuated all its staff from its Kandahar Consulate had also sent arms and ammunition for the Afghan forces in the same IAF plane which was used to evacuate Indian Consulate staff.

India has been a major stakeholder in the peace and stability of Afghanistan. It has already invested nearly $3 billion in aid and reconstruction activities in the country. Recently Afghan forces captured a Pakistan national who was attempting to destroy Afghan-India Friendship Dam (AIFD), formerly Salma Dam, is a hydroelectric and irrigation dam project located on the Hari River in Chishti Sharif District of Herat province in western Afghanistan. 

There have been growing calls, including those from former US President George W Bush, for his country to slow down its exit. Bush said civilians were being left to be “slaughtered” by the Taliban. “Afghan women and girls are going to suffer unspeakable harm. This is a mistake... They're just going to be left behind to be slaughtered by these very brutal people, and it breaks my heart,” Bush told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

Though what former President Bush said is true which is also being agreed upon by world leaders but no country has right and credibility to blame United States for leaving Afghanistan in such fashion especially after U.S having spent more than $3.5 trillion dollars and after more than 2,400 American soldiers have sacrificed their life fighting in Afghanistan. No other country can boast of its soldiers having fought and lost their lives for world peace like U.S .Lets not forget it was Americans who saved the world and defeated Germans, Japanese in WW2. 

Recently there was a pic where a father and son were both deployed in Afghanistan reminiscing past history were many father and sons fought together on D-Day on the beaches of Normandy in WW2.The famous movie -Saving Private Ryan story was inspired by the fact that seven brothers fought and were killed in WW2.No other country has contributed so much for world peace like Americans. No country has right to blame Americans for leaving Afghanistan especially when other countries refused to send their troops.

Its the collective responsibility of the world to ensure Taliban does not take over Afghanistan again. Perhaps before withdrawing in such abrupt fashion Biden should have lobbied with world powers and convince countries to send their peace keeping force under United Nations Mandate.

The abrupt withdrawal of US forces will embolden Taliban and in future Afghanistan may again become a safe heaven for organizations like Al-Qaeda.

This will have huge negative impact on India as Pakistan which was on Financial Action Task Force(FATF) will again recieve funding form Americans for its services as Afghanistan being landlocked depends entirely on Pakistan for supply of goods through border at Torkam located near Khyber Pass and Spin Boldok.

The Jaish-E-Mohammed(JEM) Commander who infiltrated India and who was mastermind of Pulwama Terror Attack was a Afghan War Veteran.

During early days of militancy in Kashmir valley many Kashmiri youths who had crossed to POK for terror training were trained in terror camps in Afghanistan.

Its no doubt that as per present situation in Afghanistan India will be biggest loser because Pakistan importance in Washington DC will increase thereby resulting in lifting of measures put by FATF.

India should lobby with world powers so that UN Peace keeping force is sent to Afganistan so that total control is not lost.

This could be a golden opportunity for Iran to come out of the sanctions imposed on it by Americans if it decides to utilize its geography the way Pakistan smartly does. India which already had aided in  construction of Railway line from Chabahar port to Iran-Afganistan Border and Zaranj-Delaram Highway will be able to utilize this as another supply line for UN Peace keeping force.

All these years Americans fought in Afghanistan almost single handedly though British and some European countries sent troops but they were minimal when it should have been collective responsibility of the world. And now for world leaders to blame Joe Biden for abrupt withdrawal is not only hypocrisy but also morally wrong.We often take for granted the very same thing that deserves our gratitude. Joe Biden is the fourth US president presiding over having troops in Afghanistan.

India all these years had played constructive role in Afghanistan but it failed to make the Chabahar Port-Zaranj railway line fast tracked project  and also failed to make Iran as logistical source for the West and thereby losing golden opportunity to make US less dependent on Pakistan.We lost a golden opportunity during President Obama term when Iran and US were willing to break the ice for better relations.

Let's not forget when Indian Airlines IC-814 was hijacked it was taken to Kandahar Airport by the hijackers and India was forced to send Ajit Doval for negotiation which resulted in releasing of  JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar from Indian prison.

We need to make Iran as logistical hub for friendly forces in Afghanistan rather than they depending on Pakistan and its the moral responsibility of entire world to send it's troops to Afghanistan under UN mandate as peace keeping force otherwise if Afghanistan falls to Taliban another 9/11 or another hostage situation like IC-814 will occur and Afghanistan will become safe heaven for Pakistan to train militants and send them over to Kashmir valley. They did this in past in early 90s they will do it again notwithstanding the so called peace process which both India and Pakistan has agreed to take further. We all know Pakistan will not leave its hate towards India and will continue its strategy of bleeding India through thousands cuts.

Neither Air-Force or Navy is a supporting arm of Army

 Yesterday on 2nd July 2021 CDS General Bipin Rawat raised a storm after declaring on national television in an interview that Air-Force is a support arm of Army just like how Engineers and Artillery are for Infantry units of Army. 

This statement not only is outdated and wrong but the timing of this statement when India is going for joint Theatre commands has exposed the turf war which came to affect our National interest for the first time in 1999 Kargil War. The lack of jointmanship during decision making when Army's demand for AirStrikes on enemy position was not entirely agreed upon by Air-Force.Thereby resulting in not only we losing above 500 soldiers but also it resulted suggestion of post of CDS  in the subsequent Kargil review commitee.

Today CDS has said Air-Force is a support arm, Tomorrow he may even include Navy in that list.

Lets not forget in the same Kargil war Pakistan didn't opened up another front because it was left with only six days of oil left as Indian Navy had blocked of all oil supplies to our western nemesis.

Let's not forget after Pulwama Suicide Bombing it was Indian Air-Force which extracted revenge by bombing JEM complex at Balakot. In the subsequent next day Operation Swift Retort launched by PAF it was again IAF which defended us and saved Oil depot which was one of the target.

Let's not forget it was IAF hunter fighter jets which saved brave men of Major Kuldip Singh Chandpuri at Longewala in 1971 who had bravely held guard against enemy ten times its size.

Lets not forget in the distant past we had sent a patrol of Jaguar jets to Jaffna during the start of IPKF deployment in Sri Lanka as a warning. Nothing intimidates  like Air-Force strength in the heart of enemies.

Around same time when Maldives was facing coup it was IAF which sent its Mirage Jets as a warning to rebels that India is intervening the crisis.

The recent Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where Azerbaijan used Turkey manufactured Bayraktar TB2 UAV wreaked havoc on a superior Armenian Forces.It shouwed the world that in today's warfare its the Air-Power which will decide the course of war.

Lets not forget how Israel destroyed Iraq's under construction Nuclear plant using its fighter jets. Not many people know in those days Israel had requested India the use of Indian Air-force Western Base as a launchpad to strike Pakistan Nuclear Sites.According to the Dawn Newspaper, the operation was subsequently called off due to fears of a retaliatory attack on Indian nuclear facilities. It is also believed that the CIA had tipped off Pakistan President Zia Ul Haq of these plans and the State Department warned India of stern action (Dawn, 29 October 2007). The timing of this suspected operation suggests that the US was concerned about Pakistan losing its focus on the Afghan Jihad against the Soviet Union. Indeed, at that time, Pakistan was an indispensable ally for the fight against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, in the same way today Pakistan is again an indispensable ally today for America's interest in Afghanistan. The difference now is that the US strongly encourages and remains an active party to the growing Indo-Israel relationship, and is an important factor in this growing relationship.

Today when Afghanistan is again in doldrums as US just removed all its forces from Bagram Airfield and with Taliban again making steady inroads Pakistan has become an important launchpad again for Americans.

On one end we have Chinese who have annexed our land in Ladakh forcing us to move 4 divisions from the Pakistan border to the Ladakh border with China.

Prior to the India-China stand-off in Ladakh India had 12 divisions facing China on the Ladakh front and 25 facing Pakistan on the west. This ratio has now changed. Today there are 16 divisions positioned on the Ladakh front compared to 21 on the western front.

The recent India - Pakistan signing ceasefire declaration and signalling intentions of making peace inroads is nothing but all directed by China.

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan open support for Pakistan cause all these years was not a cause of concern for us as it hardly mattered but the role of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAV role  in Ajerbaijan's victory over Armenia  has potential to change the war outcome in sub-continent if it occurs .In all probability we can safely assume that Pakistan already has Turkish  Bayraktar TB2 UAV.

Now that two-front threat that strategists have long regarded as the worst-case military scenario for India is a reality and with Army stretched to its reserves our only deterrence will be a Fully equipped modernised IAF. And with our dependence of oil on Gulf Navy also plays an equally important role.

With Pakistan importance rising again in American strategic intrest as they pull out of Afganistan -America's Second Vietnam we no longer can expect the formation of an alliance like NATO with ASEAN,JAPAN,AUSTRALIA as It was USA which could have added punch to such an alliance.

In the end its us who will be butchered if we dont pull up socks and equip our Air-Force with the required strength. Operation Swift Retort has shown us how a inferior Enemy can escalate and de-escalate war as per its needs using its Air-Force.We were lucky in Operation Swift Retort that we had a friend in Oval Office that time.President Trump though not a politician till he became President had an understanding of world's Geo-politics way better than other American Presidents in the past.He was truly India's friend .Had he got 2nd term the alliance on the lines of NATO against China which is ur only way to tame the dragon would have become reality.Lets's not forget Henry Kissinger once had openly declared America doesn't have any foreign policy they only have American Policy .With Pakistan again in focus in America's interest over Afghanistan and with China breathing fire on us our only hope to stalemate and defend ourselves will hugely depend on our  Air-Force and Navy.

So for CDS to say Air-Force is a support arm of Army is wrong and reflects lack of strategic understanding.

In today's warfare Its the AIr-Force which plays the most decisive part.

Lets not forget in 1965 and 1971 both wars Pakistan had got fighter jets from countries like Jordon and Indonesia where as we had recieved none as such .If today war breaks out Pakistan needs only Turkish  Bayraktar TB2 UAV to wreak havoc.In all probability with our current state of affiars of Air-Force the result of any war will be similar to one we had in 1965 which ended in stalemate.

And if such a stalemate occurs its a victory for an inferior and smaller force.

The recent attack on Jammu IAF base by drones has shown our vulnerability.

Its high time we equip our Air-force with enough teeth .Already the tenure of A K Anthony has pushed our Armed forces back by 25 years if we dont catch up we may lose more land in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.

The place to discuss (and resolve) differences among ARMY,AIR-FORCE And NAVY is in Chief of Defence Staff room in South Block. Not TV studios.

Government needs a PR overhaul

There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Government of India has lost the perception battle in people's mind following Government announcement of its willingness to defer the implementation for 18 months as the protest now spanning months around Delhi border is not showing signs of subsiding. Like every reforms in past has faced opposition the 3 new farm laws passed by Parliament is being opposed vociferously by farmer unions particularly those belonging to Punjab earlier now supported by Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) led by now the face of the protest -Rakesh Tikait-  a Delhi Police constable-turned-farmer leader following in the footsteps of his father - Mahendra Singh Tikait whose rally at Delhi's Boat Club lawns in 1988 forced the erstwhile Rajiv Gandhi led Union Government to accept the union demands. 

Just like how liberalisation reforms where vehemently opposed then by the erstwhile so called Bombay Club led by the erstwhile Industrial stalwarts who had their wealth grown exponentially as they were the benefactors of the erstwhile License Raj system which these groups had ensured remain till 1991 through lobbying similarly the recently 3 Farm Laws allowing farmers to sell their produce anywhere in the country outside APMC markets passed by the parliament are being opposed by farm unions who are brainwashing farmers in creating a theory that government will in few years remove the MSP provision. In the initial days of protest the farm union demands included amending the laws passed by including the sovereign guarantee of MSP provision and it will not be discontinued. Initially Government had golden opportunity to end the protest to accept this demand but the government stuborness added more fuel to the raging fire .This led to farmers now calling for rollback of farm laws.

There is no doubt that the recently passed 3 farm laws are in interest of farmers as existing MSP provision is not discontinued and in fact they are getting additional options to sell their produce. However the present quagmire that Government and now the farm unions are also stuck in following 26 th January Delhi rampage including storming of Red -Fort has come to a situation who will blink first and willing to accept defeat in public perception.

The ruckus of 26th January has diminished the public sympathy which was generated towards farmers as they were camping in winter and as given the Government a face saving exit option. To tackle the brainwashing of farmers in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Western UP , Government needs to involve the stalwarts of all walks of life and show the protesting farmers the advantages of the 3 farm laws. So far Government has not been able to convince the protesting farmers that MSP will continue and not removed in coming years as being spread by farm union leaders.

The present mess which the Government itself finds is classic example how despite having good intention and good governance is not enough until you have a good PR. To tackle brainwashing of farmers by vested interest. Government so far seems to have failed miserably in handling the PR by taking on those who are spreading false fears. The 3 farm laws will end the monopoly of the APMC markets in the districts who were till now monopoly customer. Till now APMC traders were controlling the prices by forming cartels among his peers and the poor farmers till now were being taken for ride because he had no option but to sell at the price willing to be paid by APMC traders as most of the farm produce used to be perishable. All these years the farmer was being taken for ride. The new 3 Farm laws will give the same farmer option to sell his produce elsewhere to any private trader at a price acceptable to both. Earlier the farmer was forced to sell only at designated APMC Markets.

Government strategy of playing waiting game to ensure fatigue creeks in the protest seems to have backfired as the protestors are led by vested interest who have amassed enormous wealth all these years by looting the poor farmers can keep on the protest for many more months.

Government needs to amend laws by ensuring the sovereign guarantee of MSP continuence in text. Also selling and buying farm produce below MSP should be made a crime and stringent punishible terms should be included in the amended laws and above all Government today need its maverick leaders who are mass leaders to hit the street and take on brainwashing of farmers by vested interest head-on. So far not one major BJP leader has hit the streets amassing support for the 3 farm laws.

The recent concretisation of barrricades at Gazipur border which included creating a minefield of nails has done a big damage to government's image and it should be removed because its wrong morally.  Damage is already done. So far PM Narendra Modi has not got directly involved in negotiations between farm unions and government which is being handled by his Agricultural Minister. Perhaps the time has come for PM Modi and big leaders of BJP to get directly involved and ensure the 3 farm laws are enforced and accepted by farmers to take on the opposition not only in Parliament but also on streets.

Above all Government needs a major PR Overhaul and a face to take on those who are brainwashing the poor farmers with false fears. Good Intention and  good governance are not enough .You need a maverick leader to make the rebel believe in you. Unless they hit the streets and convince the protesting farmers the benefits of the farm laws it will cause serious dent to Government's image as anti-farmer despite the 3 farm laws being pro-farmers law.This government is failing at only one point and that's PR-Public Relations.